Justin up in Quebec; Harper slips a bit

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Harper paying price for Senate scandal

Like his father before...

Results of the latest CROP poll reflect the impact in Quebec of the Senate expense scandal on the Stephen Harper government.

The news is not good for the Prime Minister.

There is even the possibility that the Conservative Party could be wiped from the Quebec political map if a federal election were held this week. It's that bad.

Those who say that Harper has given up on Quebec are wrong. It's rather Quebec that has given up on Harper.

The Senate scandal has sucked in Conservative senators Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau, as well as Harper's chief of staff, Nigel Wright. It has had a negative effect of the satisfaction index of Quebecers.

Duffy and Wallin are both former well-known television journalists in English Quebec.

A good part of the population in Quebec has been cranked up and sensitized to corruption by the Charbonneau Commission, making them more responsive to any political scandal.

The satisfaction rate with the Harper government slipped to 21% in May, seven points lower than the previous month. Duffy really hurt Harper.

The "dissatisfied" index rose four points to 72%. This means that almost three out of four Quebecers are dissatisfied with Harper in power. A 50% rate would be high; a 72% rate is downright scary.

Liberals with their very popular leader, Justin Trudeau, are leading with a 39% score. This looks like a political tidal wave in the making.

In second place comes the NDP, the big orange wave of 2011 which slipped to 29%, still a very respectable result, but not the convincing result of the late Jack Layton.

The Bloc Quebecois and Daniel Paillé are in third place with 18%. No big change there.

The great defeat in the poll goes to Stephen Harper's Conservatives who end up with only 9% in Quebec. That's poor, very poor.

There is an old saying in Quebec politics: "8% is family." So 9% is not that far away.

In Quebec, a political party under the 10% threshold in voting intention rarely elects more than a handful of members, if even that.

With 9% support, the Conservative Party could be endangered political species in the province.


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